Digital TV Research, which publishes its five-year SVOD forecasts annually, estimates that there will be a total of 16 million paying subscribers to SVOD services in Africa by 2029.
This forecast figure represents an increase of 9 million compared to the 7 million recorded at the end of 2023.
Of the 16 million subscribers, 59% will come from South Africa and Nigeria, which will attract 9.4 million subscribers in 2029.
Among the major SVOD players, NETFLIX will remain the market leader at the end of 2029 with 6.9 million subscribers, representing 43% of the total number of subscribers.
Showmax will be the second platform with 3.7 million paying subscribers, representing 23.1% of the total number of subscribers.
The institute predicts that the Disney+ platform will only have 905,000 subscribers by 2029, whereas two years ago it credited Disney with 2.2 million subscribers in its forecasts.
With the weakening of Disney+ and the withdrawal of Amazon Prime, the SVOD market will now focus on the rivalry between Netflix and Showmax, which has a wealth of local content and sports rights, while now also having access to content from NBCUniversal, Sony Pictures, and HBO.
However, a lot can happen between now and 2029: it will be particularly important to closely monitor the outcome of the takeover bid by Canal+ for Multichoice, a shareholder in Showmax.