Digital TV Research publishes its five-year forecasts for pay TV every six months.
In August 2021, Digital TV Research predicted 15.1 million paying subscribers to SVOD services in Africa by 2026. This forecast figure represents a threefold increase on the 5.1 million expected by the end of 2021.
Half of the additional 10 million subscribers will come from South Africa and Nigeria, which will each attract 2.3 million additional subscribers.
Among the major SVOD players, NETFLIX will account for 51% of the total number of subscribers by the end of 2021, but its market share will fall to 39% by 2026 despite a doubling of its subscriber base (5.8 million in 2026 compared to 2.6 million at the end of 2021).
Disney+, which will launch in 2022—initially in only 12 countries—will reach 2.2 million paying subscribers in 2026, closely followed by Showmax with 2.1 million subscribers and Amazon with 1.9 million subscribers.
